|Course unit title||Planning and Prognostication|
|Name and e-mail of the lecturer||
Assoc. Prof. Nedko Minchev, PhD
|Learning activities and teaching methods||Lectures, discussions, individual and group assignments|
By the mid-twentieth century the work of organizations was changing very slowly, which made them predictable. This enabled them to organize their activities on the basis of incoming orders, on the basis of current plans and there was no need for transformation. But after 1950 the external environment experienced dynamic growth of changes, however, organizations still retained their predictability. This required in the work of organization alongside the short-term planning, medium-term and long-term planning to be used too. In the 60s and 70s the overall rate of development accelerated and changes in the environment became unpredictable. For this reason long-term strategic planning carried out on the basis of prediction of situations and potential threats and opportunities, using sophisticated mathematical models and expert opinion became the most important one. After the 70-ties changes in the external environment became so sudden and unpredictable that prospective strategic plans ceased to be useful for the organization without detailed planning of strategic tasks, development of forecasts, the extraordinary actions, etc. Only through them operational reporting of changes and providing the necessary practical actions is possible.
|Assessment method||Exam/Individual or group assignment|